The forum is packed with controversial poker tournament hands like this one that will help develop and improve your overall strategy. Phaedrus says: I am sure this will be viewed by many (including many much better players than me) as at best a controversial fold, at at worst moronic... and yet I folded it pretty confidently...... Its pretty close to the money bubble of a large field MTT. I have less than 2BBs in chips and have to post the BB. I am about 503 of 110 left and money starts at 495.

Prior to the hand being dealt, I decided that I would cop the BB random hand and hope I got lucky, because I am going to be pot committed. I was very happy to see K7o because it is better than a random hand. It folds to the CO who goes all-in for about 4BBs and I am ready to try my luck. However before I do I quickly check his stats and stop dead. He has 3% PFR%. This whole table has been playing very tight, and now the dude who is so tight he squeaks shoves on the bubble

I am getting about 4.5:1 on my call which is mostly a no-brainer call. However against this particular guy I am really starting to worry about specifically AA, KK and AK. I have odds to call QQ, but not the first 3. OK, So his range is a little wider than AA, KK or AK because he does have everyone behind him covered. But that has been the case for a while and yet Mr Squeaky has not been stealing the blinds at all.

But can I really fold 4.5:1? It seems incredulous. In fact absurd, and yet here I am profiling this short stack dude on the money bubble down to 3 hands. What is worse, is that if I fold now, I have precisely 3 hands till I am blinded out. That won't be enough to make folding to the money an option. So.... it is this hand, or do I take the SB and run with that?

Well, if I fold and take another random hand am I going to be more likely to have around a 2:1 chance than if I run with this hand? I am only ever a 2:1 now if Squeaky is at the very bottom of his range. Otherwise I am next to diddly squat chance at about 10:1. With about 2 seconds left on my clock I decide that I prefer my chances with another random hand than I do running with this.

www.pokerhand.org/?4019676P

Squeeky turns over KK and I am glad for my fold. I got KJo in the SB and prevailed over Ace rag and within about 50 to 60 hands later I was up to 45K in chips and in a solid position to make a run at the final table. (Until my TT ran into JJ)

I really would never criticize someone calling with K7o in that spot. However I think it is important, no matter how desperate your situation is, that you never abandon the concept of finding the best path through all relevant variables. In this hand, Pot odds were are huge compelling force to virtually demand a call. But Squeaky Boy's profile was a huge compelling force to fold. It was a very close balancing decision in my mind but the more I thought it through, the more I could not get past AA, KK or AK. . This time it seems I got it right. I was a decision which resulted in my winning an $67 I would not have won unless I won as a 93% underdog in the K7o hand.

I mentioned that I knew I had odds to call QQ. However with only a 3% PFR%, QQ or other lesser PP was at the bottom of the guys range. The big 3 were all the ones I did not have odds to call and they matched the profile more than QQ or less.

Another way to look at it is this

Odds of AA, KK or AK = 50% (worst case IMO)

Odds of QQ or lesser PP = 50%

6 to 1 for the first group and 3 to 1 for the second group

I am still at best getting slightly less than the odds needed.

If we said he was on TT-AA or AK, then I am a 5 to 1 dog - still not good enough

The other thing to consider is that in the next hand, with 195 chips, I will be getting about a gazillion to 1 odds. Why take a boarderline call now when I can be guaranteed of not making an incorrect call next hand?

Decisions in Poker Tournaments.

I was watching Phaedrus during the game (as mentioned in another thread) and agree with the fold. Poker decisions are heavily influenced by odds the majority of the time in a tournament. There are certain tactical adjustments we make (more aggressive near the bubble, tighten up after it for example), but in general odds are important.

Except for one vital area - survival to ITM. There is a point in every MTT where we must decide:

Are we still going for the FT, just as deep ITM as we can or just get to ITM whatever way we can. The last situation, with 195 chips left if he folded the SB and BB, is where Phaedrus was at. If we look at ALL the facts:

There were 8 players left to be knocked out before the money.
He had 45 seconds in the time bank.
He is 503 of 510 (110 was a typo Jasper) with 57 tables in play
4 or 5 players were busting each hand.
He would have enough chips for 2 hands (BTN and CO) before the antes busted him (if he folded the SB/BB).
The blinds/antes are worth about 2-3K
The ITM is worth $40, a profit of $15 on the initial $25 investment.
K7o is a List 14 Trash hand with 28% SE v a 7.4% range
K7o is in the bottom group of 28 hands out of 169 hands in the Table Monitor Chart
The odds of receiving a better hand in the SB next time are 5-1 fav or 80%
The pot odds are very good

Phaedrus has used the argument about the 3% raising range for folding. I believe it is a red herring. The above list of facts make folding a no-brainer IMHO, with the following points/benefits:

K7o is highly unlikely to win no matter what the odds. Folding does not mean elimination. ITM will be reached within 2 hands max - and possibly 1 hand. It has become a $40 bet if you play the hand with the K7o crap cards. Folding provides the opportunity of an 80% chance of receiving a better hand in the SB next hand, with the option of being 2nd last to make a decision and a 45 second time bank to waste to give the best opportunity for reaching ITM. Folding 2 hands is a virtual guarantee of making ITM. Jasper is correct in his post, it is not the odds that matter, but finding the best route to get ITM.

Look at it this way:

If you have given me $1 for a bet to cross a ravine and obtain $100K but are stuck, hanging off the edge of a cliff and I offer you $1000 to jump to a thin ledge below you, with the option of waiting for a helicopter rescue with an 80% chance of it arriving, would you jump - especially if you knew that by doing nothing you would be saved in a few minutes by the mountain rescue team racing along the cliff edge?