A forum posted hand that discusses the scenario of folding big slick, even when it hits the flop. This hand took place (earlier tonight) about 4 hands into this 2 table, $10, 18 player sng tournament. Against one player, I might have let it ride, but when the re-raise and re-raise after my flop bet came, I decided I was either....

behind 2 pair. set of 888s

or

with 2 opponents VERY likely to get drawn out for straight or flush.

I fold, but discover I was actually ahead.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3874875

Anyhow, the reason this hand is here is because of an extensive 4 way chat debate with the guy with AQ as he was obv pissed about getting outdrawn. I then told him he cant complain if he is going to let it ride, as I folded a better hand than he had.

He couldn't accept my rationale for folding, and firmly believed he needed to push his hand. Hey the guy is good, his SS numbers very impressive, but I think he got hung up on this hand and power-played it too strong esp. not knowing his opponents profiles either.

I invited him to the forum for further debate, he has yet to show.

After losing this hand and another small pot, I was 14th of 15th at one point, but if not for my QQ losing to K9 in the last hand of the tournament, I would have finished 1st.

Phaedrus75 had a look at this and came up with these thoughts as well:

Pretty easy fold IMO for a regular speed event. If its a Turbo then I let it ride despite Green M.

In saying that though, I don't think KTs played it incorrectly. He has 13 outs making him about a slightly less than a 50-50 chance. He is getting 1.9:1 on his call which clearly justifies calling. But he realises calling will leave him pot committed, so he shoves. That is a positive EV decision in my book.

It is interesting to observe that with the pot so big, there is nothing that AQo can do to price out this combo draw on the flop. Indeed even if AQo only has to protect against a standard 2:1 draw, he still only just manages to price them out with his 800 chip raise (but only if one opponent folds - if they both called then a standard draw would get correct odds).

So one has to wonder how much benefit there is in raising to build a very big pot with TP2ndK.

Added to this problem is the pre-flop action. UTG limp and then UTG+1 raises to 3x. UTG+1 did not have to raise with the limper in front. That means you can start to discount some of his possible speculative hands like middle SCs and small middle PPs. It is probably not a big pair, because UTG+1 would probably do more to narrow the field with a bigger raise I think. UTG +1 would also realise that in the early stages, a 3x raise after limp is pretty unlikely to get it HU against the limper. So UTG+1 is raising even though he knows he is likely to have bad position in the hand.

That's a pretty reliable betting tell that UTG+1 has a couple of big unpaired cards, probably suited or maybe 99 to JJ which are just strong enough to raise a limper and see what happens on the flop.

Post flop, AQo is not actually looking that flash. He's losing to AK and AJ. KQs has a gut shot and a combo draw if suited in hearts. He's beating 99 and TT, crushed by JJ. Another marginally possible hand he is beating is ATs. So all in all AQo is in a fair but marginal situation.

He therefore is being faced with three competing objectives. 1. lose the least when he is behind. 2. win the most when he is in front and 3. protect against the draws.

The big problem is that the pot is huge and accordingly options are limited. Any raise will essentially commit him to the pot. Folding is out of the question, but flat calling might actually gain some very important information allowing him to escape if he is behind. If he flats, he gets to see 3 very important things before he commits. 1. Whether the third player calls. 2 what the turn card is and 3 what the aggressor (UTG+1) does on the turn.

Depending on how those events interact with one another, AQo can confidently fold on the turn some of the time and therefore assist in losing the least when he is behind and when he gets outdrawn by draws he could not protect against anyway. In this case a heart on the turn would probably not be that great for him, because he would pick up the nut flush draw which, together with his made hand strength, he will probably have to call. But as a general rule, the turn card is an important piece of the puzzle in these marginal situations.