Home   Cautious early leads to winning later in tournaments.
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So here I am in midnight madness at full tilt poker, which is a tournament I play often but unfortunately haven't had much fortune in. Nevertheless I often play it for the pure  ambition of knocking out Michael Craig.  Of all the times that we have been in this tournament together however, I have only been at his table maybe once or twice and we didn't have any altercations. Not only that, the guy is usually out within the first hour of the tournament anyway so that seriously negates any knockout opportunities.

However in this game, I did happen to be seated next to Lee Watkinson a resident pro here at Full Tilt Poker and he does play the Midnight Madness, not often but on occasion, and it was my fortune to sit beside a player that I do respect.

Here's the thing though in our first hand together I had to induce him to make an error in this tournament while I was holding a very strong hand. Obviously he had no read on me because I just joined the table, and making the hand more difficult for him was the fact that he also had a strong hand. So my job was to extract as much of Lee Watkinson's chips that I could - and that meant making him think he may have had me beat.

This might sound easier than it was, given our stack situations both being orange mzoned in the middle stages of the tournament. But Watkinson is obviously good enough to make a game saving fold which would've been very costly for me. So how do you get a pro to make an error? The answer of course is letting him think there is a good chance that he's ahead.  And to do that, you basically have to act like a typical internet player full of anxious and impatience and acting without strategic forethought.

 

 

Now before I get to hand with Lee Watkinson, I wanted to show you an early hand in the midnight madness where I kept out of trouble by folding pocket jacks early on. This was like in the second hand of the tournament and I raise with pocket jacks from early position. Rather standard at four times the big blind. A caller on the button in the small blind who's already lost some chips reraises 510 making the pot nearly 800. Now I have to call 390 chips here which in the first hand I know if this flop goes bad for me it's going to take away a third of my stack.

Now not only is that expensive, it also seems to me that given there was a call on my hand and then reraise from the small blind that I am already beat here. It's a simple as that. A reraise like that from the small blind usually means Aces and Kings. Given that type of hand and the fact that my best case scenario is probably a 50-50 here, this is an easy fold.

So that's what I do meanwhile player on the button who is already doubled up in the first hand calls, playing with his chips very loosely. A small card flop and the small blind goes all in for 690 chips. Basically the guy's got to call this for odds now and he's got Ace Ten. Absolutely horrible play and that's what you don't want to be doing early in a tournament. This guy had already doubled up and now look at him he's burned away a good chunk of his early fortune in the game... so stupid.

Like I said a raise from the small blind like that is usually a big pair so toss your jacks and think of them as a middle pair when you see a raise like that early on in the tournament -  Unless you are up against a known wanker, just save yourself some heartache and wait for a better spot because you are still green mzoned.

Its hands like this - folding - that give you opportunity later in the tournament to play hands like this one where after a table change I came up against none other than Lee Watkinson.  I am under the gun and the blinds are 120 and 240 so I raise to 720 which is three times the big blind. A standard raise to be sure but it was a good chunk of my orange stack so someone's got to figure that I've got something - likely a pocket pair. Funny thing is I get a call from Lee Watkinson in the big blind. If the big blind calls he's got a hand, especially if there is no body else in the pot you've got to think that he's holding a pair as well. However if he had aces or kings I'm sure he's reraising pre-flop so as soon as he calls I am putting him on a medium pair, possibly as good as Queens.

The flop comes 932  and my only concern here is if he has pocket nines because I don't think he calls my raise with pocket threes or twos. Still, when holding pocket kings I cannot play on the premise that he has me beat after this flop. It's just going all in and I have to decide how to get all of his chips in this in the middle. Which is why I decide to make a clear over-bet to this pot. This is something I rarely do. The thing is Lee Watkinson doesn't know me from any other  turtle online and by shoving in like this, I am much more likely to induce a call from him because the over-bet makes me look inexperienced.

When the hand started, given the way he called he might have suspected that he was behind with his pocket pair, but now, because of my irrational play he may think he has me. This is a typical over-bet of someone who may be shoving around with Ace King, Ace Queen, JJ, TT,  or even a low pair like 66, 77, or 88.  One thing he knows for sure is that I do not have 99, but now he's no longer sure he is beat either.  By giving him something else to ponder based on my large over-bet here, I really think he convinces himself that I'm shoving withAce King here. Given our relatively equal stacks sizes and situations in the tournament, I think, mathematically he needs to call here.

If I don't make this move, instead I value bet the flop, I think Lee Watkinson is capable of folding this hand because he does have 3200 chips. Not great but good enough to stay in the tournament and wait for a better spot. He definitely took some extra time to call this bet, and reasoned after all that I was just another internet ninkenpoop and calls with his pocket jacks.  And there you go I got a pro-bust out bounty, my first one ever at full tilt poker.

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